Government Shutdown Odds Surge to 47% Amid Congressional Deadlock
The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown has escalated to 47%, marking a 13% spike within 24 hours according to Polymarket's prediction data. Legislative gridlock persists as Congress reconvenes, with Democrats pushing to reverse Medicaid cuts from The One Big Beautiful Bill while resisting Republican-led funding rescissions.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faces intra-party criticism for his compromise on the previous funding agreement. The impending September 30 deadline leaves lawmakers 20 working days to negotiate before appropriations lapse—a scenario last seen during the record 35-day shutdown in December 2018 under the TRUMP administration.